我国煤炭供应链库存影响因素分析

Influence factors analysis of China's coal supply chain inventory based on grey relation method

从运输、需求、供给、价格、进口、出口6个方面搜集有关因素,分别创建我国港口、电厂、企业三种煤炭库存的灰色关联模型。利用2011年1月至2014年12月的月度数据揭示了相关因素的量化影响作用,发现煤炭进口量、铁路运输量等是最为显著的影响因素。为进一步讨论煤炭库存与各因素间的长期均衡关系,将三种煤炭库存分别与煤炭进口量、铁路运输量两个主要影响因素进行协整检验,结果显示港口煤炭库存与煤炭进口量、铁路运输量存在长期均衡关系。最后,综合国际煤炭形势和国内煤炭市场现状对灰色模型结果进行了深刻剖析,煤炭进口量和铁路运输量对三种煤炭库存有着显著地影响,今后煤炭库存管理过程中着重观测煤炭进口量和铁路运输量,从而实现对煤炭库存的有效管控。

This paper focuses on influential factors in China＇ s coal inventory grey correlation model, including：transportation,demand,supply,prices,and import,export. Coal inventory grey correlation models of power plant,port,and enterprise are established. According to the analysis of monthly data in from Jan 2011 to Sep 2014, it is generally believed that among those factors,coal imports,railway transport volume are the most significant ones. For further discussion of the long- run equilibrium relationship between coal inventory and the factors,the co- integration test between the three kinds of coal inventories and the two most important factors are respectively taken. The results show that there is a long- term equilibrium relationship between the port coal stock and those two factors. In the end,according to the international and domestic coal market situation,the results of grey model have been profound analyzed and useful management advice has been presented,calling for more attention on coal imports and railway transport volume.