2015年全球矿业形势分析与2016年展望

Analysis of global mining in 2015 and outlook for 2016

近四年来,受全球经济复苏乏力的影响,国际主要矿产品价格震荡下行,矿产勘查预算持续下降,新发现矿产地减少,矿业公司市值严重缩水,公司市值被低估。随着矿产品价格的大幅下跌,高成本矿山陆续关闭或停产,优胜劣汰的结果将拉低矿山的平均生产成本,这在铁矿石行业尤为明显。矿业寒冬带来的市场大调整,不仅可以洗掉大量劣质的矿业项目,而且使投机者自动退出,矿业市场回归理性,矿业新秩序正在重构。在市场自净化的过程中,拥有优质资源的矿业巨头将利用其低成本价格优势扩大市场份额,未来市场集中度可能将进一步提高。研究发现,上一轮全球矿业熊市对应的是1997～2002年,前后持续约五年。在此期间,矿业资本支出降幅累计达42%。截至2015年末,此轮矿业资本支出相比2012年的峰值已下降约30%,未来2年仍有15%的下降空间。上一轮熊市中矿业资本支出经过了7年的调整才恢复到1997年的水平,照此推算,本轮矿业资本支出的下降至少还要持续2年,之后才可能迎来复苏反弹。

Over the past four years,as most mineral prices shock down,mineral exploration budget continued to decline,and the discoveries of new deposits have been reduced,the value of the mineral company has shrunk seriously as well as the company＇s market value is underestimated,with the impact of the weak global economic recovery.With the sharp drop in the price of mineral products,high cost mines have been closed down or suspended.As a result,the average cost of mine production will be pulled down,especially in the iron ore mining.The market adjustment in the mining winter is not only washing off a lot of mining projects with poor quality,but also to withdraw from speculating.With the mining market returns to a rational level,a new order of mining is being reconstructed.In the process of market self purification,the mining giant with high quality resources will use its low-cost price advantage to expand the market share.And thus,the market concentration may be further improved in the near future.It is found that the last round of the global mining bear market is corresponding to 1997～ 2002,with a mining capital spending fall by 42%.As of the end of this year,the mining capital spending fell by 30%from the peak in 2012,and in the next 2 years there is still some room for 15%.The last round of the bear mining market in capital expenditures lasted for 7years to return to the 1997 level.According to the projections,the decline in the mining capital spending will continue to be at least 2years,after that it is likely to rebound.