装备维修保障仿真系统灵敏度分析与参数优化

Sensitivity analysis and parameters optimization for equipment maintenance support simulation system

针对装备维修保障仿真系统的灵敏度分析与参数优化问题,提出了基于仿真实验手段的应用研究框架。在分析装备维修保障仿真系统建模方法的基础上,提出了基于仿真实体的输入参数确定方法;从战备完好、任务成功以及维修保障系统级等多角度分析明确了输出评价参数;研究了基于分支定界法的关键输入参数筛选方法和基于正交表的输入参数抽样实验设计方法;研究了基于极差分析和方差分析的灵敏度分析方法原理,并提出了一种基于方差分析的输入参数优化方法。最后利用开发的灵敏度分析工具进行了算例验证,表明所提方法具有很好的工程实用价值。

Aim at the problem of sensitivity analysis and parameters optimization for equipment maintenance support simulation system,the application research framework based on the simulation experimental means is proposed.In analyzing the simulation system modeling method basis,the obtaining method of the input parameters based on simulation entity is proposed.At the same time,the simulation output parameters is determined considering the operational readiness,sustainability and maintenance support system level.The key inputs screening method based on sequential bifurcation,and the sampling experimental design method of the inputs based on the orthogonal array are studied.The sensitivity analysis principle based on the range analysis and variance analysis is researched.On the basis of variance analysis,a new method of input parameters optimization is proposed.Finally,the software tool developed for sensitivity analysis is used to do an practical example.The result shows that the methods proposed above are of good engineering value.