基于群决策网络分析法的中国“两型社会”综合评价

Indicator System for Comprehensive Appraisal of Two-oriented Society in China by ANP of Group Decision

基于群决策的ANP分析法,构建了中国"两型社会"评价指标体系并进行实证分析。结果表明,中国"两型社会"水平在2000—2013年存在多次波动,整体为先快速下降后缓慢上升的趋势。其中,持续增长的资源和环境总量造成中国"两型社会"总体评价水平下降,资源和环境潜力指标在2005年后的快速提高起到了积极作用,但由于提高资源利用效率和降低环境污染的效率指标增长较慢,导致中国"两型社会"水平相对下降。研究发现,由于资源环境的效率指标增长远低于潜力指标,中国在"两型社会"建设中的资源和环境投入转化效率存在滞后和低效率。此外,环境指标在2011年后的变化显示,环境问题已成为限制中国未来"两型社会"建设的阻碍。

This paper constructed the comprehensive appraisal indicator system, according to the result of group decision by specialists and gave weight to the system using ANP. The results indicated that the level of China＇s two - oriented society fluctuated several times during 2000 - 2013 and in general decreased at first and increased later. Especially, sustainable growth of the aggregate indices of resource and environment led to a decreased two - oriented society level. While the rapid increase of potential indices of resource and environment after 2005 effectively enhanced the level of China＇s two- oriented society, relatively slow increased of the indices of the efficiency of improving resource utilization and reducing environment pollution led to relative decrease of the level of China＇s two - oriented society. The research also revealed that efficiency indices of resource and environment increased more slowly than potential indices, which suggested that the transformation efficiency of resource and environmental inputs in the con- struction of two - oriented society lagged and the input - output efficiency should be improved. Finally, the trend of some environment indices showed China faced a deteriorating environment situation, which would be an important constraint for the construction of China＇s two - oriented society in the future.