分布滞后非线性模型评估室外温度及湿度对手足口病发病的影响

A study on the effect of external temperature and relative humidity on hand,foot and mouth disease by DLNM model

目的利用模型估算室外温度和相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响。方法收集宁波市江北区2011—2014年手足口病病例资料及同期气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）计算日均温度和日均相对湿度变化与手足口病日发病数的相对危险度。结果将温度、相对湿度以及寒暑假以不同的组合进行模型分析,结果显示在独立模型中,温度和湿度可以独立对手足口病发病数产生影响。而在联合模型中,日均温度（18,25]℃或5℃及以下,相对湿度在68%以下,手足口病发病数增加,并存在滞后效应。相对湿度在85%~100%,滞后1~2天时对手足口病发病有保护作用。结论室外温度和湿度在一定范围内的变化可影响手足口病发病,但该变化产生的影响有不同时间的滞后效应。

Objective To analyze the effect of external temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease（ HFMD）. Methods Information of HFMD patients and weather data during 2011—2014 was collected.The relative risk due to daily mean temperature and daily relative humidity were analyzed using distributed lag non-linear models. Results Temperature of 18 ℃ to 25 ℃,or lower than 5 ℃ and relative humidity lower than 68% could increase the number of HFMD patients. While relative humidity of 85%-100% could decrease the number of HFMD patients in lag1-2 days. Conclusion In certain range and lag days,external temperature and relative humidity could affect the incidence of HFMD.