基于ARIMA模型的成都市金牛区手足口病疫情趋势预测和流行预警

Prediction on Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease Based on ARIMA Model in Jinniu District,Chengdu City

目的根据2009-2013年发病例数,采用ARIMA模型建立成都市金牛区手足口病预测模型。方法应用SPSS16.0软件对金牛区2009-2013年手足口病发病数进行ARIMA模型拟合,并通过2014-01/08数据检验预测效果。结果ARIMA(1,0,1)模型能够很好地拟合既往时间段发病序列,能够预测2014-01/08发病数变化趋势。结论 ARIMA模型能够很好跟踪和模拟历史数据作出短期预测,为手足口病早期预警提供数据支持,但存在一定滞后性。

Objective To a establish ARIMA model to predict the number of hand-foot-mouth Disease（ HFMD）in Jinniu district of Chengdu. Methods The ARIMA model was used to trace and imitate the actual data of Jinniu district in 2009-2013 based on the software of SPSS 16. 0,and the actual data from January to August in2014 were used to examine the prediction. Results ARIMA（ 1,0,1） fitted well with the actual data of 2009-2013,and could predict the trend of actual data. Conclusion ARIMA model can track and imitate the past data of HFMD,and predict the trend in a short time,but the change may later than the actual data.