上海电力发展基态指数及其轨迹分析

Basic Situation Index and Trajectory Analysis of Shanghai Electric Power Development

基于上海电力发展基态指数得分以及相关指标对得分的影响分析,对2006年以来上海电力发展的轨迹进行了回顾,分析了上海电力发展的基本态势。分析表明,上海电力从2006年至今呈现出两种明显不同的增长速度,2006～2011年呈现较为快速的发展,2012～2014年增长速度明显减弱,其主要原因是电力消费电量增速减缓,近三年上海电力消费电量的年均增速为3.03%。上海电力发展目前的基本发展态势表现为供电可靠性优良,多年一直保持在99.98%的水平,而且清洁能源供电比例已经达到7.87%,SO2和NOx的排放量逐年持续降低。目前主要面临的问题表现为在提高清洁能源供电比例的同时增加本地机组发电量和发电利用小时数,在保持供电可靠性的同时降低输电网损率,降低电力负荷的峰谷差率。

Based on impact analysis of Shanghai electric power development ground state index scores and relevant index scores, the article has a review of Shanghai electric power development trajectory and analyzes Shanghai electric power development basis situation since 2000. It shows that Shanghai electric power has two distinct growth rates since 2006. From 2006 to 2011, Shanghai electric power had rapid growth rate. From 2012 to 2014, Shanghai electric power growth rate was obviously slow down due to electric power consumption growth rate＇s slow down. In recent three years, average annual growth rate of Shanghai electric power consumption is 3.03%. Shanghai electric power basic situation proves that power supply reliability is excellent, which has remained 99.98% for years. Clean energy power supply ratip is about 7.87%, SO2 and NOx emission quantity continues to decrease year by year. The major problem is how to increase clean energy power supply ratio and increase local units power supply quantity and power supply utilization hours at the same time, how to maintain power supply reliability and reduce power grid transmission loss rate at the same time, how to reduce electric power load peak valley ratio.