中国环境污染与经济增长计量分析——基于弥补EKC缺陷视角

Econometric Analysis on Environment Pollution and Economic Growth in China——Based on Amending EKC Defects

EKC①假设命题是由Grossman和Krueger在1995年提出的,此后,学者们以其为基础,开展了许多实证及拓展性研究,得到了很多重要的结论.然而,在实证研究中,EKC存在未考虑地域性这一重要影响因素的缺陷.为此,本文在现有研究成果的基础上,首先立足于弥补EKC未考虑地域影响因素这一缺陷的角度,建立了空间回归模型,分析得到中国环境污染具有空间集聚效应的结论;然后运用EPIOLG模型测算出政府最优环境污染治理投入比②应该为10.35％的结果;最后结合定量分析结论,提出了关于我国环境污染治理的三点建议：1.需要考虑环境污染的空间集聚性;2.需要加大资金投入,逐步达到最优环境污染投入比例;3.需要平衡好经济发展与环境污染治理的关系.

Grossman and Krueger put forward EKC hypothesis in 1995. Scholars have conducted a large number of empirical researches and expanded research afterwards, and made a lot of achievements. But there exits flaws on EKC： when setting up EKC model, not regard geographical factors. Based on previous studies, firstly, we put for- ward EKC spatial regression model and gain the conclusion that environment pollution exits spatial agglomeration effect; Then we use EPIOLG （endogenous mortality model introduced government environment pollution inputs ） model to calculate the optimal ratio of government investment in gross taxes, the ratio is 10.35% ; Finally, combi- ning research theory, we put forward three suggestions for Chinese environment pollution：. 1. Reducing Environ- mental pollution need to consider spatial clustering; 2. Reducing Environmental pollution need to increase capital investment, and gradually achieve the optimum ratio of environmental pollution inputs; 3. Reducing Environmental pollution need to balance the economic development and environment.