中国航空货运业的竞争格局与发展趋势

Competition Structure and Development Trend of China's Air Cargo Transport Industry

航空货运业是我国近年来发展迅猛的产业。本文总结了该产业的发展特征,系统分析了在外资大规模进入背景下的市场结构及其变化,比较了国内外航空公司的竞争力,并对我国未来航空货运市场的需求做了预测。研究认为,在国内航空货运的主要市场上,国内航空运输企业与外国公司的竞争已经形成;随着该市场的进一步开放,外资会继续大幅度进入,市场竞争会不断加剧;我国三大航空集团的重组会有利于该市场规模经济的实现和国内航空企业竞争力的提高。对未来市场的预测显示,今后几年中国的航空货运需求的年增长速度大约在12%～14%之间,其中国际航线的增长速度略高于平均速度。

In this paper,we study the characters in development,market structure and change of China's air cargo transport industry with foreign air transportation agents entry in large scale.The comparison between domestic airlines and foreign ones in competence is ana- lyzed based on our case study and forecasting of the market demand is made in recent data.The study shows that monopolistic structure is being formed among three major domestic airlines and some huge foreign air transportation agents and more market entry will continue to happen.It is finally estimated that the market will increase in an average annual rate of 12%—14% and the rate in international flights will be little bit higher than that in domestic flights.