经济全球化中贸易一体化及其效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Integration of Trade and its Effects in the Global Economy

本文在分析贸易一体化的内涵及其效应的基础上,根据投入产出表对中国及长三角的贸易一体化和生产非一体化指数进行了测算,并以江苏为例,对贸易一体化的相关性进行了计量检验,结果支持了本文假说。表明生产非一体化对贸易一体化具有较高的解释能力。除此之外,当模型中加进资本化指数、行业外向度以及交易费用等变量时,模型的解释效果更加显著。

After analyzing the connotations and effects of integration of trade, we give some propositions and estimate the degree of integration of trade,disinte- gration of production of China and the Yangtze River Delta based on the indices we set,and then,we give correlation tests based on input-output tables of Jiangsu province.The result supports the hypothesis that disintegration of production can give explanations to integration of trade.Other variables,such as extroversive in- dex,capitalization index,transaction cost,etc.Can also explain the facts of inte- gration of trade,and if we modify the model,the significances improve.