美国在南海问题上对华制衡的政策动向

Prospects for U.S. Policy of Balancing China in the South China Sea

美军在中国南海岛礁邻近区域定期实施"航行自由行动"等举措,标志着美国在南海问题上的对华制衡政策正进入新的阶段。美智库和政策界人士围绕中国南海政策走向等问题展开争论;美军方和白宫就如何在南海问题上应对中国存在政策分歧,奥巴马政府力避南海问题成为其"负向遗产"。美国在南海问题上加大对华制衡的核心策略是"成本强加",即在不与中国发生大规模武装冲突的情况下,通过外交、政治、军事、法律等综合手段,增加中国推进南海政策的成本。南海问题将深化中美关系的"战略漂移"状态,两国围绕该问题的博弈料将更趋复杂。

US military's regular 'freedom of navigation operations'in the waters close to China's islands in South China Sea show that the US has entered a new phase in balancing China in South China Sea. U.S. think-tanks and policy circle are currently debating on China's policy trend in the region. U.S. military and the White House have differences on how to deal with China in the South China Sea. The Obama administration hopes to prevent the South China Sea issue from becoming a 'negative legacy'. The core of U. S. strategy of balancing China in South China Sea is 'cost-imposing',or increasing China's cost in implementing its policy through comprehensive measures such as diplomatic,political,military and legal means without large-scale conflicts with China. The South China Sea issue is likely to turn Sino-U.S. relations into a status of 'strategic drift',and their competition over the issue tends to be more complicated.