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德国长期经济增长的TFP启示:1875～2013年

The Enlightenment of German TFP in Long-run: 1875 ~ 2013
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摘要 文章介绍了德国经济增长数据的历史演变、主要学说以及评估结果。通过使用Hoffmann/Sommariva、Burhop、Ritschl、Maddison、Merkel和德国官方序列,用资本份额法和计量估计法测算了1875~2013年德国全要素生产率（TFP）增长趋势。结论认为,传统资本份额法由于使用了较小的资本产出弹性,可能会高估德国TFP增长。从长期来看,德国TFP增长呈明显的＂冲击-弱化＂特征,转折性提升出现在纳粹时期,而1973年后逐渐向一战以前的状态回归。德国经济增长方式转型并非是自然渐进的过程。 This article reviewed historical evolution,main theories and assessment results of German economic growth. Based on data from Hoffmann / Sommariva,Burhop,Ritschl,Maddison,Merkel and German official series,the growth trend of German TFP from 1875 to 2013 is calculated by the capital share method and econometrical method. The result shows that the traditional capital share overestimates German TFP growth because it employs an underestimate capital-output elasticity. In long-run,German TFP growth has an ' impact-reduction' appearance. The turning point of productivity has occurred in the Nazi period. Since1973,the trend has moved backward to the pre-World War I pattern. The German transformation of economic growth mode wasn't a gradual course.
作者 金飞
机构地区 北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院
出处 《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第2期111-123,137,共13页 World Economy Studies
关键词 德国经济史 全要素生产率 资本份额 经济增长方式转型
分类号 F151.6 [经济管理—世界经济]
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