城市旅游发展与经济增长的长期均衡——洞庭湖生态经济区案例

Long-run Equilibrium Between City Tourism Development and Economic Growth——A Case of Dong-ting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

旅游发展与经济增长的关系是近年来旅游经济领域研究的热点,旅游发展变量与经济变量(通常为地区生产总值,GDP)之间是否存在长期均衡关系又是热点中的重点。识别两个变量之间的长期均衡关系可以发现一个变量随另一个变量的量化变动规律(一般为效应)。宏观(国家和省际)层面的旅游发展变量与经济增长变量之间的长期均衡关系已得到实证检验,然而,中观(城市)层面的长期均衡关系有待验证。本文选取地缘相近的四个城市(常德、岳阳、益阳和荆州,同属于洞庭湖生态经济区)为样本,通过对四个城市2000—2013年时间序列数据的协整回归,研究发现:(1)常德市(国际旅游外汇收入)和益阳市(旅游总收入)与各自的GDP之间存在长期均衡关系,长期效应分别为0.78%和0.672%;(2)旅游发展与经济增长之间的关联程度和关联方式存在城市间的差异性,这些发现对样本城市乃至洞庭湖生态经济区在经济增长新常态背景下调整旅游发展政策具有重要的现实指导意义。

In recent years, study focus of tourism economy fields is the relationships between tourism develop- ment and economic growth, which the long-run equilibrium relationships between them is the study emphasis. In spite of many related literature over the world , few investigation is extremely found in China, especial y in the level of city tourism development and economic growth. There is basically consensus on developing tourism contribute to economic growth, in past several years, papers which examine the relationships between tourism development and economic are increasingly grow, from both macro perspective and meso perspective, In china, related examinations extraordinarily focus the overall relationship between tourism and economic, and focus one in the provincial level. All of these efforts is helpful to guide both the Chinese overall tourism development and various provincial tourism development, however, it failed to cover the different cities with huge differences in tourist resources, industrial structures, product devel- opment, as well as marketing strategy and so on. Therefore, some conclusions from Chinese overall and provin- cial level can not suited to the city level, for example, is there long-run equilibrium between tourism develop- ment and economic growth in city level？ The identification of long-term equilibrium of two variables is help to find the quantifiable relation. In order to answer this question, this paper take Dong-ting Lake Ecological Economic Zone （DLEEZ） for exam- ple, select four sample cities, Changde, Yueyang, Yiyang, and Jingzhou located in Hubei province. This current paper use the co-integration regression analysis for time series data from 2000 to 2013 to explore the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between domestic tourism revenues, international tourism revenues, total tourism revenues and gross domestic products （ gdp）, under the testing of robustness, draw these conclusions ： （ 1 ） the long-run equilib- rium relation exist in the between Changde city（ international tourism revenues） and Yiyang city（ total tourism reve- nues）and their own gdp respectively ,and the long-term effect respectively is 0. 78% and 0. 67% ;（2） there are city differences in the relevance level and style of tourism development and economic growth. In the four sample cit- ies,higher relevance level between city economy and tourism economy is found in Changde and Yueyang city, of which, a extremely direct relation between inbound tourism and economic development is found in Changde city, contrast to other cities, higher indirect relation between inbound tourism and economic development is found in Yiyang city. These conclusions are of important guiding significance for local tourism administrators adjustment of tourism development policy in this new normal economy background. Finally, this current paper propose some tourism development strategies for four sample cities, for example, in- bound tourist market development should be given more attention in the Changde city, domestic and international tourist market should be given same attention in the Jingzhou city, meanwhile, due to spatial adjacency of four cit- ies, differential tourism brand strategy should be taken based on the tourism resources analysis in order to attract in- ternational tourists, and maintain a good natural environment, increase promotional dynamics forward international market.