采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应

Driving Effects Analysis of Water Consumption Changes in the Beijing-TianjinHebei Region Using a Factor Decomposition Model

京津冀地区水资源供需矛盾突出,迫切需要分析其用水量变化与社会经济发展之间的内在联系.在分析用水总量变化时空特征的基础上,采用因素分解模型研究了2003—2013年京津冀地区产业用水量变化的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应.结果表明:京津冀地区产业用水量10年间下降了8.84%,是京津冀地区实现经济增长和水资源利用脱钩的主要影响因素;规模效应10年间累计增加了267.95×10~8m^3,是导致产业用水量增长的唯一驱动因素;结构效应和技术效应都倾向于减少产业用水量,分别累计减少124.17×10~8和164.11×10~8m^3;技术效应是北京产业用水量减少的主要原因,10年间累计减少了79.14%的产业用水量;而天津的结构效应要强于技术效应,10年间分别累计减少81.17%和73.71%的产业用水量;河北的结构效应和技术效应10年间分别累计减少51.37%和68.33%的产业用水量,相比京津仍有较大潜力.研究显示,调整产业结构、推广节水技术是缓解京津冀水资源短缺压力的有效途径,未来河北在承接产业转移的同时,应紧密结合产业结构的优化和经济增长方式的转变.

With an obvious contradiction between water supply and demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,it is urgent to analyze the relationship between water consumption and socioeconomic development. Beyond the analysis of the temporal and spatial features of water consumption,this paper uses a factor decomposition model to investigate the scale,structural and technological effects of the changes in industrial water consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2003 to 2013. The results show that the total industrial water consumption decreased by 8. 84% during the ten years,which is the main reason for the disconnection between economic growth and water consumption. The increase of industrial water consumption by 26. 795 billion m^3 was due to the scale effect. While the scale effect was the only driving factor that increased industrial water consumption,the structural and technological effects tended to reduce industrial water consumption,by 12. 417 billion and 16. 411 billion m^3 respectively. In the case of Beijing,the technological effect played the main role,contributing 79. 14% to the decrease of industrial water consumption. Whereas in the case of Tianjin,the contribution of structural effect to the decrease in industrial water consumption（ 81. 17%） was more effective than the technological effect（ 73. 71%）. The structural and technological effects in Hebei Province resulted in 51. 37%and 68. 33% decrease,respectively. As compared to Beijing and Tianjin,there is still great potential for water saving in Hebei Province. Industrial restructuring and water-saving technology popularization are effective ways to alleviate water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which means undertaking industrial transfer in Hebei Province should be closely combined with theoptimization of industrial structure and transformation of growth pattern.