对外贸易开放度、供需政策与经济风险

Trade Openness, AS-AD Policy and Economic Risk

对外开放给我国经济带来了巨大的改革红利,同时也造成了经济政策作用机制和传导机制的复杂化,给我国经济带来了一定的风险。文章在总供给与总需求的框架下,分析对外贸易开放度与我国总需求与总供给政策的关联机制,进而分析对外贸易开放度对经济下行风险和通货紧缩风险的关联性与作用机制。实证结果表明:对外贸易开放度越高,总供给曲线越陡峭,总需求曲线越平坦,产出通胀替代比也将越高,经济下行和通货紧缩风险将减小,此时应避免采取大规模的积极货币政策。在当前对外贸易开放度缓慢下降的经济新常态下,应继续实施积极的对外开放政策,努力扩大总供给,适当刺激总需求,确保产出和通胀在新常态下适度平稳运行。

China＇s economic reform and opening-up policy has brought huge dividends,complicated the economic policy mechanism and transmission mechanism, and resulted in a certain amount of economic risk. In the framework of aggregate demand and aggregate supply analysis, the paper checks the correlation mechanism between foreign trade openness and AS-AD policy, and then analyzes the linkage and mechanism between trade openness and economic downside and deflation risk. The empirical results show that the higher the foreign trade openness is, the steeper the aggregate supply curve will be; the flatter the aggregate demand curve is, the higher the tradeoff between output and inflation will be, so the economic downside and deflation risk will be reduced, and the policymakers need to refrain from large-scale active monetary policy. In the circumstance of new normal economy and the slow decline of foreign trade openness, we should continue to implement the reform and opening-up policy, make efforts to expand the total supply, and stimulate the aggregate demand appropriately, to ensure the smooth and moderate operation of output and inflation.