旅游地社会-生态子系统恢复力比较分析——以浙江省淳安县为例

Comparative Analysis of the Resilience of the Socio-ecological Subsystems of Tourist Destinations:A Case Study of Chun an County

旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力研究是当前旅游可持续发展研究的新视角。从脆弱性和应对能力两方面分别建立旅游地社会、经济和生态子系统的恢复力指标体系,采用集对分析法,对浙江省淳安县1987—2012年的各子系统恢复力进行测度和比较分析。结果表明:(1)程度与趋势上,3个子系统脆弱性均处于中等水平,但社会子系统呈下降趋势,经济子系统呈先降后升态势,生态子系统呈上升趋势;应对能力和恢复力基本同步增长,3个子系统均呈上升趋势,目前处于相对高级水平。(2)变化幅度上,脆弱性方面,生态子系统变幅相对最大,经济子系统相对最高;应对能力方面,3个子系统均经历了由相对较弱到较强的过程,且阶段节点大致相同,其中社会子系统由最弱变为最强,生态系统变化由最强变至最弱。(3)恢复力方面,社会子系统增长最强劲,经济子系统具有波动性,生态子系统变幅最小。生态和经济子系统脆弱性尤应受到关注,应对能力应注意系统物质资本的积累,避免过多注重社会能力的创造,真正提高系统恢复力。

The Socio- ecological system is a complex adaptive system influenced by internal and external factors. Socio-ecological system theory is more concerned about sustainability in a process that is constantly changing,and believes that the key to successful management of a changing process lies in system resilience. System resilience offers a new perspective for studying the sustainable development of tourism. From the two aspects of vulnerability and response capacity,the paper illustrates a resilience index system of the social,economic and ecological subsystems of tourism destinations. The resilience of each subsystem is measured with a set pair analysis method in Chunan County in Zhejiang province from 1987 to 2012. The results show that：（1） In terms of the degree and trend of vulnerability,the three subsystems are all at an average level. However,the social subsystem presents a downward trend,the economic subsystem is up after a drop,and the ecological subsystem shows an upward trend. Furthermore,response capacity and resilience are correlated and grow in step with each other. The three subsystems all show a sound upward trend,currently at a relatively advanced level.（2） In terms of the change of the index value,the vulnerability of the ecological subsystem has the biggest change relatively,and the vulnerability of the economic subsystem has the highest growth.In terms of response capacity,social,economic and ecological subsystems all go through a transition from being weak to strong. Among them,the social subsystem experiences a dramatic change from being the weakest to the strongest,and the ecological subsystem witnesses the smallest change from being the strongest to the weakest.（3） The resilience and response capacity share similar changes. But the resilience of the social subsystem is the most robust,while the resilience of the economic subsystem has certain volatility,and the ecological subsystem experiences the smallest change.（4） While response capacity plays its role,attention should be paid to the accumulation of material capital to improve system resilience,for every response capacity is likely to cause substantial damage to the system and bring about new problems. These new problems will induce a new response capacity. So the cycle may internalize the damages of background resources in the tourism system until the system breaks down.To sum up,with the continuous development of the social economy and the tourism industry at Chunan County,the social subsystems tend to be stable,and vulnerability is gradually reduced. However,the vulnerability of the economic subsystem will grow,for the tourism industry is more vulnerable to the external environment. As tourism becomes a larger portion of China s gross national product,the economic subsystem will grow more vulnerable. The ecological subsystem is the most vulnerable,and the tourism industry is exerting great influence on Chun an County s natural environment. There is negative impact of the tourism industry such as noise pollution and the decline of water quality,resulting in mounting pressure on the country s ecological system. For those tourist destinations featuring lakes,more attention should be paid to the vulnerability and response capacity of the ecological system,because once water quality and biological（and other） resources are destroyed,it will be difficult to restore the system to its original state. In addition,for the socio-ecological systems dominated by the tourism industry,integrated development needs be pushed to improve diversity in the economy,reduce the risks of tourism-dominated development,and strengthen the resistance of the system.