煤层预抽后残余瓦斯含量分布动态预测方法

Dynamic prediction method of residual gas content distribution for seam after gas pre-drainage

针对煤层预抽后的残余瓦斯含量测定难度大且不能动态预测的问题,通过对影响残余瓦斯含量分布的瓦斯储量分布、预抽方法与布孔参数、煤层与煤质特征、井下生产活动等因素的分析,提出通过划分预测单元、确定预测指标、建立预测模型和绘制残余瓦斯含量分布动态预测图来实现残余瓦斯含量分布动态预测的方法。并采用该方法建立了金佳矿11223工作面残余瓦斯含量动态预测模型,经井下实测数据验证:最大绝对误差0.86 m3/t,最大相对误差18.08%,最后利用Surfer工具绘制出11223工作面的残余瓦斯含量分布动态预测图,实现了动态预测。

According to the problem of a high difficult to measure the residual gas content of seam and unable to dynamiclly predict after the gas pre-drainage operation,with the analysis on the gas reserves distribution affected to the residual gas content distribution,gas predrainage method,borehole layout parameters,seam and coal quality features,underground production activities and others factors,a method to dynamically predict the residual gas content distribution could be realized with the prediction unit divided,the prediction index determined,prediction model established and the dynamic prediction drawings of the residual gas content distribution drawn.A dynamic prediction model of the residual gas content in No.11223 coal mining face of Jinjia Mine was established with the method. The underground site measured data showed that the max absolute error was 0.86 m3/ t and the max relative error was 18.08%.Finally,the Surfer tools was applied to draw the dynamic prediction drawing of the residual gas content distribution in No. 11223 coal mining face and the dynamic prediction could be realized.