基于空间Markov模型的湖北省区域经济差异时空演变分析(1994年～2012年)

The analysis of regional economy disparities inHubei Province from 1994 to 2012 on Spatial-Markov Model

采用人均GDP数据,利用泰尔指数对最优研究尺度进行分析选择;然后综合运用探索性空间分析方法和空间马尔科夫(Markov)模型,对湖北省近20年经济差异时空演变格局进行分析.研究发现:(1)县级尺度能更好地反映研究区域经济差异的变化.(2)研究区域县域经济发展水平具有显著空间自相关,其空间集聚程度研究期间存在变大、变小和持续变大的波动,两极分化趋势明显,区域经济差异扩大;经济发达的热点区主要集中在宜昌市和武汉市市辖区周边,"低-低"区则主要分布在鄂西北、鄂西南以及鄂东的黄冈个别县市等边缘区域,呈现出核心与外围的特征.(3)不同研究单元保持自身经济水平状态的可能性最大,且低水平区域最稳定;邻域背景对县域经济发展具有显著影响,但影响方式有所差异;4种经济发展水平类型的稳定性有差异,中等水平区域较活跃;初始状态对区域经济发展具有重要作用,不存在经济水平的跨越式转移.

Based on per capita GDP data,Theil index was used to analyze and select the optimal studyingscale.Then exploratory spatial data analysis method and spatial-markov model were comprehensively applied in research on the evolution pattern of regional economy disparities in Hubei province in recent 20 years.The results show that：1）county level scale performs better on reflecting the variation of regional economy disparities in Hubei Province;2）the spatial agglomeration degree of county economy development in Hubei Province fluctuates with time in three stages including enlarging,diminishing and continuously enlarging;the trend of polarization phenomenon is prominent,and the regional economic differences have expanding tendency;devoloped hot spot areas mainly concentrate around Yichang and Wuhan municipal districts,whereas＂low-low＂areas are mostly distributed in the edge of the province such as the northwest,southwest and several counties in Huanggang,indicating the divergency between core and periphery;3）counties in Hubei Province tend to keep their own economic states,and low level areas are most stable;neighborhood background has significant but diverse effect on development of county economy;four types of economic development zone differ in stability,among which medium level regions are much more active;initial state plays an important role in regional economic development,and there is no regional economic types transferring by leaps and bounds.