基于不确定完成时间的项目进度控制模型及其应用

Introduction and Application of Project Schedule Control Model Based on Uncertain Completion Time

对电子装备研发过程中的进度控制问题进行了研究。通过电子装备研发过程的分析,指出各步骤完成时间的不确定性是其主要特征,针对传统项目进度控制方法存在的假设前提过于理想化,在实际应用中偏差较大的问题,提出了基于不确定完成时间的解决方案,以关键路径算法为基础,将研发过程中某一任务的完成时间设置为一个时间范围内的某一点,建立数学模型,通过最小化相同状态下当前方案与最优解方案之间的差异,达到调整项目计划安排的目的。实验证明,该方案更贴近于电子装备项目研发的实际,可以有效地控制项目进度并优化。

The process control problem in the development provess of electronic equipment is analyzed.The analysis of electronic equipment development process proves that the uncertainty on the completion time of each step is the main feature.For that the assumption of the traditional project schedule control methods realistic and there is large deviation in practical application,a solution based on uncertain completion time is proposed.Based on critical path algorithm,the completion time of task is set as a point within a time scope,and a mathematical model is established to the project plan by minimizing the difference between the scheme and optical solution under the same status.The experiment proves that the proposed solution is more close to the actual project of research and development of electronic equipment,and can effectively control and optimize the project schedule.