论情报分析中的非逻辑方法

On Non- logical Method in Intelligence Analysis

[目的/意义]在情报分析中,非逻辑方法在情报素材匮乏、情况完全不确定的情况下发挥着缩短分析过程、全面考虑各种假设和创造性得出结论的重要作用。但目前围绕该方法的研究大多是从重要性这一角度来阐释的,缺少学理上的分析。[方法/过程]鉴于此,从非逻辑方法的本质入手,结合对情报分析方法的思考,探索了非逻辑方法的三种表现形式以及三个触发条件。[结果/结论]通过对非逻辑方法进行学理上的分析,有助于情报分析人员在分析过程中更好地释放非逻辑方法的潜力。

[ Purpose/Significance] In intelligence analysis, non-logical method plays a role of shortening analysis process, considering all hypotheses and educing conclusion creatively when intelligence material is deficient and the situation is absolutely uncertain. But the study on this method usually focuses on its importance and lacks the analysis from the angle of academic principle. [ Method/Process] So this article starts with the essence of non-logical method, and combines the reflection on intelligence analysis method, discusses the three manifestations and three triggers of non-logical method. [ Result/Conclusion] To study non-logical method from academic principle as- pect can help intelligence analyst release the potential of non-logical method.