基于土地要素的农户行为决策模型分析——以陕西省米脂县姜兴庄村为例

Land element-based analysis of farmers' decision-making about land use: A case study in Jiangxingzhuang village of Mizhi county,Shaanxi Province

微观经济主体农户行为决策受多因素影响。土地要素是表征农户投资与收入行为的重要因子。农户满意度行为分析可反映农户有限理性种植决策选择机制。两者结合,可表征土地利用变化驱动因子,优化农地景观格局。论文以陕西省米脂县姜兴庄村为例,通过建立土地要素投资收入实证模型、农户效益模型和满意度Probit模型,利用2009—2012年地块与农户调研数据,分析农户土地利用决策影响因素。结论为:1土地碎化程度(-0.279)和土地质量整体状况(0.272)对农户流动资金投入影响强度高;土地灌溉条件(0.165)和土地质量整体状况(0.154)对农户农业收入影响显著。2模型模拟与实测最优对比结果:7.5%,10.6%,20%,轮种混种比例明显占优,体现了农户的满意度偏好决策方式。Probit模型较好地模拟了农户决策行为态度。其中农业活动收入、耕地面积、政策虚拟显著相关。

Micro-economic subject of household behavior decision-making is influenced by many factors. Land element is an important factor in farmers＇ investment and income behavior. Farmers＇ satisfaction behavior anal- ysis can better reflect the household bounded rationality and behavior decision-making mechanism. A case was studied for Jiangxingzhuang Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province. After establishing the Investment in- come empirical model and farmers＇ satisfaction Probit model, using 2009--2012 household survey data to ex- plain and analyze these differences and the influential factors. The conclusions can be drawn as follows： ①The factors in Land fragmentation degree （ - 0. 279） and Land quality overall situation （0. 272） have a significantly affect in farmers＇ investment behavior. The factors in Land irrigation （0. 165 ）and Land quality overall situation （0. 154） have a significantly affect in farmers＇ incomes behavior.②There is a significant difference between the rational optimal decision and the farmers＇ actual decision-making in Jingxingzhuang Village ,which can il-lustrate that households＇ bounded rationality plays an important role. The results revealed that the coetticient of agricultural income is 0. 65, the agricultural acreageis - 0. 56, Policy virtua land is 0. 328, family farmland area is 0.41. All levels show the significant association, and is in line with the comparison between theoretical predictions and actual research.