城市人口空间分布格局影响因素研究——以北京为例

Influencing Factors for the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Urban Population——Take Beijing as an Example

城市人口空间分布影响因素的研究对于城市空间结构发展和大城市中心人口疏解有着重要的意义和价值。利用北京市2005-2013年16个区县的相关面板数据,建立双向固定效应面板数据模型,对影响北京市人口空间分布的因素进行了实地分析。实证结果表明北京市近年来居民生活水平、就业机会和优质的教育资源对人口密度产生了较大的正向作用,而经济发展水平、房地产建设和医疗资源的增长则对人口扩散起到一定的作用。根据模型中16个区县的截距项分析各区县的人口承载潜力,提出了相应的人口疏解建议。

The research of factors influencing the spatial distribution pattern of urban population has vital significance and value for the urban spatial structure development and metropolises＇ population dispersion.Based on the panel data of 16 districts during 2005- 2013 in Beijing,this paper establishes a two-way fixed effect panel data model to empirically analyze the factors influencing the spatial distribution pattern of population in Beijing. The empirical results show that resident＇s living standard,employment opportunities and superior education resources have great positive effect on the population density. The development of economic and real estate,and the growth of medical resources play certain roles for population dispersion. Meanwhile,based on the intercept of 16 districts in the model,it analyzes each district＇s population carrying capacity,and puts forward corresponding suggestions for population dispersion.