德尔菲法在应用过程中的严谨性评估--基于信息管理视角

Rigorous Assessment of Delphi Method in the Course of Application

以方法学家的论证为依据,通过实证研究,从专家的选择、问题表的产生、问题表的筛选、赋值打分、结果分析、停止征询等几个方面分析了信息管理领域德尔菲法在应用过程中的严谨性。提出今后德尔菲法研究应当注重研究设计和专家意见达成共识的过程,并且报告专家的不同意见,对改变的德尔菲法应当说明其适合研究的理由,遵循方法的严谨性,从而获得高质量的研究成果。

Based on demonstration of methodologists and the empirical study, this paper evaluates the rigor of Delphi method in the course of application in information management field by analyzing the following aspects ： expert selection, construction of the questionnaire, filtration of the questionnaire, valuation and ranking, result analysis and stopping rules. The paper proposes that the research of Delphi method should focus on the research design as well as the process of expert opinion consensus, and reports the different opinions of experts. While conducting modified Delphi method, the suitability of the modification should be justified in the related research to improve the rigor in the application.