摘要
论文根据时间序列分析理论,从专业设备网管所提供的网络运行性能参数入手,应用概率论和数理统计理论,提出了基于时间序列分解模型的趋势预测算法,建立了基于时间序列变化分解的网络性能特征量趋势预测模型。通过实际采集的性能参数数据对分解模型和算法进行了验证,仿真结果表明,性能参数的预测趋势与实际监测趋势具有很好的吻合性,具有较好的可行性和实用性,可为通信网络状态检修提供技术支持和判断依据。
Based on time-series analysis theory,starting from characterization network operation state of performance parameters provided from professional equipment management,This paper is based on the theory of probability and statistics,the model is established to predict the trend of network performance characteristics based on the amount of sequence variation decomposition,apredictive algorithm is proposed based on the trend of time series decomposition model.The performance parameter data acquired on the decomposition model and algorithm are tested,results show that the forecasting trend and the actual monitoring trends are fitted well,it has good feasibility and practicability,which can provide technical support and judgment basis for condition based maintenance of communication network.
出处
《计算机与数字工程》
2016年第1期76-79,94,共5页
Computer & Digital Engineering
关键词
电力通信网
性能参数
时间序列分解
趋势预测
power communication network
performance parameter
time series analysis
trend forecast
