中国OFDI的宏观经济影响因素及其门槛特征

Impact of Chinese macroeconomic factors on outward foreign direct investment and threshold characters

文章解释了国内宏观经济因素对OFDI的内在影响机理,并发现OFDI及其影响因素在中国不同地区具有显著的差异性。在此基础上,采用门槛回归方法构造非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验了影响对外直接投资规模的若干因素的门槛特征,并分别从经济发展水平、引进外资、产业结构、民营经济发展等方面测定了正向促进对外直接投资规模的门槛水平。实证结果表明:当宏观经济因素指标达到或超过门槛值时,对中国OFDI才具有显著的促进作用;反之,则不存在影响甚至对OFDI会产生挤出效应,即中国对外直接投资的宏观影响因素表现出了明显的门限特征。

On the basis of the previous research, this paper explains the mechanism of impact of domestic macroeconomic factors on outward foreign direct investment, and finds out that OFDI and its influencing factors have significant differences in different provinces. Using threshold regression panel data model, it also empirically measures the threshold levels about various factors influencing OFDI, including the level of domestic economic development, foreign investment, industrial structure and the development of private economy. The results show that： When macroeconomic factors meet or exceed the threshold, they will play a significant role in promoting OFDI in China. On the contrary, the macroeconomic factors have no significant effect on OFDI and will produce crowding out effect, namely macroeconomic factors affecting China ＇s foreign direct investment shows a clear threshold characteristic.