气象环境对电网负荷的影响因素分析

Analysis of the impact factors of meteorological environment on power load

针对地区电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响,负荷预测中存在诸多不确定性问题,研究了气象因素对电网负荷的影响,最大程度减少由气象因素造成的负荷预测偏差。应用灰色关联度分析方法,基于大量历史数据,剖析气温、湿度、风速等气象因素与负荷特性变化的关联度,得到对负荷变化产生主要影响的气象因素。在此基础上,为了量化分析主要气象因素对负荷影响的程度,采用支持向量回归的方法得出日特征气象因素、实时气象因素对负荷变化的的灵敏度模型。同时,考虑到气温的累积效应对负荷特性变化的重要影响,研究气温累积效应对负荷的影响规律,得到气温累积效应修正公式,并用实例证明对历史数据经累积效应修正公式进行修正后,修正数据能够切实提高负荷预测的准确性。

The load of a district power network is easily affect-ed by various meteorological factors, which cause many uncertainproblems in the load forecast. In order to maximumly reduce the pre-diction deviations caused by meteorological factors during the loadforecast, the influences of meteorological factors on the power loadare analysed. Based on a large number of historical data, the methodof grey correlation analysis is used to analyze the correlation betweenmeteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and wind speedand the load characteristics, as a result, the dominant meteorologicalfactors affecting load are identified. The sensitivity between grid loadand meteorological factors is studied by the polynomial curve regres-sion analysis. The influence law of cumulative heat effect on load isstudied with the consideration of the cumulative effect, and the cor-rection formula of temperature is calculated in the paper to improvethe accuracy of load forecasting.