前瞻性货币政策与影子信贷市场融资风险——基于2008—2014年货币政策操作与浙江省案例数据分析

Forward-looking Monetary Policies and Financing Risks on Shadow Banking's Credit Market: Analyses Based on Monetary Policy Operating and Informal Credit Data in Zhejiang from 2008 to 2014

影子信贷市场是平行于银行信贷市场的企业融资市场,存在形式以民间借贷市场为主。那么,货币政策的周期性宽松和紧缩,是否导致了影子信贷市场风险的积聚与显化?笔者以中国货币政策操作两个完整周期的2008—2014年为观测期,以在此期间浙江省发生的民间借贷纠纷案例为依据,编制了浙江省影子信贷市场风险综合指标,并通过实证检验量化研究三大货币政策工具对影子信贷市场风险的影响程度。结果表明,中央银行公开市场操作对影子信贷市场融资风险无显著影响,而法定存款准备金政策、再贴现政策与再贷款政策对影子信贷市场融资风险有显著的反向影响,由此提出前瞻性货币政策的操作策略,通过适当的货币政策调节,实现宏观调控目标的同时,降低影子信贷市场风险。

The credit market of shadow banking is a parallel lending market to the credit market of bank- ing, and the main form of market is the informal lending market. Then, do the cyclical loose and tightness of monetary policy lead to the accumulation and the manifestation of the financing risks on shadow banking＇s cred- it market？ Taking two complete cycles of monetary policy operation during 2008 -2014 as the observing peri- od, we compiled informal financing risk index of Zhejiang based on all available dispute cases of private lend- ing. Moreover, through the empirical study, we find out the effects of three monetary policy instruments on fi- nancial risks of this informal credit market. The results show that the central bank＇s open market operations have no significant effects on informal lending risks, but both the statutory deposit reserve policy and the re- discount and relending policy have significant negative influences on informal lending risks. According to the consequences, we proposed a forward-looking monetary policy operation strategy, aiming to realize maero-ad- just goals and reduce credit market risks of shadow banking through appropriate monetary policy adjustments