乌鲁木齐市麻疹类疫苗接种时间序列研究

Study on time series of measles vaccination in Urumqi City

目的探讨乌鲁木齐市麻疹类(简称麻类)疫苗接种的时间趋势,为疫苗分配管理提供参考依据。方法应用SPSS21.0进行统计分析,采用时间序列分析方法进行季节分解、模型建立等,模型检验标准ɑ=0.05,P<0.05时认为模型无效。结果 1报表数据显示,2008—2014年麻类疫苗和接种剂次接种数量逐年上升。2该研究经过多次拟合后,确定麻类第1和第2剂次的时间序列模型均符合自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)(1,0,0)模型,提示模型有效,经检验P>0.05。应用已经建立好的模型预测2015年5—7月份数据,结果显示,实际值均在预测值范围内;3麻类疫苗第1与第2剂次均满足1—8月份接种数量逐渐上升,9—12月份接种数量下降,接种数量高峰月份为5—9月份。结论麻类疫苗接种数量在逐年上升,分月份分析发现,麻类疫苗接种数量存在一定的变化规律,基本符合ARIMA的要求,通过建立的模型,预测每月的接种数量比较可靠,可以考虑在后期疫苗使用计划的制定中加以应用。

[Objective]To explore the time series of measles vaccination in Urumqi City,provide a reference basis for vaccine distribution management.[Methods]The statistical analysis was conducted by SPSS 21.0. The time series analysis was applied in seasonal decomposition and model foundation. The model checking standard is α=0.05,and model is invalid when the P value is less than 0.05.[Results] 1The report data showed that the measles vaccination,immunization dose and inoculation quantity have increased gradually from 2008-2014. 2 By the multiple fitting,the time series models of the first dose and second dose of measles vaccination were in accord with the Autoregressive integrated moving average model（ARIMA）（1,0,0）,which indicated that the model was valid,and P value is higher than 0.05.The established model was used to predict the data from May to July in2015,and the results showed that the actual values were in the range of predictive value. 3The seasonal characteristics of the first dose and second dose of measles vaccination revealed that inoculation quantity has increased gradually from January to August,then decreased from September to December,and the peak appeared May to September. [Conclusion]The inoculation quantity of measles vaccination has increased gradually. The monthly analysis shows that there is the change rule of inoculation quantity of measles vaccination,which meets the requirements of ARIMA basically. The established model can be used to predict the monthly inoculation quantity,and it is suitable for the formulation of vaccination plan.