基于测度体系模型的兰州市房地产泡沫测度研究

The research on the real estate bubble of Lanzhou city based on the model of measurement system

基于测度体系模型,文中选取了房地产泡沫相关的五个指标,采用2004-2013年的房地产相关数据对兰州市的房地产泡沫进行了测度研究。研究结果表明:1)在研究期内兰州市房地产市场泡沫普遍存在,且泡沫程度从2004年的0.0951上升到2013年的1.5688,总体呈现出上升的趋势,表明兰州市房地产泡沫程度呈现出不断扩展的态势,其实质是市场价格越来越偏离其基本价值。2)2007年和2010年兰州市房地产泡沫综合指数之所以大幅下降,这与国家的房地产宏观调控政策及兰州市出台的强有力的政策措施是密不可分的;2011年以后市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的功能逐渐显现,这两年国家对房地产市场采取"放开"的政策是合理和明智的。

Based on the model of measurement system, this research selected the five indicators related to the re- al estate bubble, and studied the measurement system of real estate bubble of Lanzhou city with related estate da- ta from 2004 to 2013. The research results show that： （1） Real estate market bubble of Lanzhou city was wide- spread from 2004 to 2013, and the degree of the bubble rose from 0.0951 in 2004 to 1. 5688 in 2013, showed a growing tendency of real estate bubble degree, its essence was that the market price was more and more deviated from the basic value. （2）The foam composite indexes of real estate of Lanzhou City fell sharply during the 2007 and 2010, with the country＇s real estate macroeconomic regulation and conirol policy and Lanzhou, so it was closely tied to a strong policy measures. However, after 2011, although the Gansu province, Lanzhou City peo- ple~ government of the relevant real estate regulation effectively curb the trend of the real estate bubble allocation of resources was gradually emerging, and al estate market was reasonable and wi.se. policy regulation continued, but the policies had failed to growth, It suggests that the decisive position of market in the also reflected ＂open＂ policy over the past two years to the real estate market was reasonable and wiae.