新疆阿拉尔地区近53年气候变化特征分析

Analysis of climate changing characteristics in Alar area from 1961 to 2013

根据新疆阿拉尔地区1961-2013年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、日照时数、平均风速、降水量等气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith模型、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法分析了阿拉尔地区近53年气候变化特征。结果表明:1)阿拉尔地区年平均气温、最低气温呈"低-高-低"的动态变化;最高气温呈"高-低-高"的动态变化,1987年为气温年突变点。2)阿拉尔地区自1987年以来,春季最低气温增幅为0.19℃/10a(p﹤0.05),夏季最低气温减幅为0.044℃/10a(p﹤0.05),秋季平均气温和最低气温减幅分别为0.117℃/10a(p﹤0.01)和0.004℃/10a(p﹤0.01),冬季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温减幅分别为0.681℃/10a(p﹤0.01)、0.478℃/10a(p﹤0.05)和0.606℃/10a(p﹤0.01),呈"春暖-夏暖-秋冷-冬冷"的动态变化。3)阿拉尔地区20世纪90年代前,降水负距平占66.7%,k值>32的年份占64.2%,气候极端干燥;20世纪90年代后,降水正距平占61.3%,k值>32的年份占52%,气候相对湿润,呈"干-湿"的动态变化,干燥度均在16以上。

Based on the meteorological date ty, the maximum temperature, the minimum Alar area, we analyzed the climate changing of the average temperature, relative humidity, average wind veloci- temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in characteristics in Alar area by Penman -Monteith model, climate inclination rate, and Mann -Kendall method. The result shows that： 1 ）The average temperature and minimum temperature dynamic change trend was＂ low - high - low＂, the maximum temperature dynamic change trend was＂ high -low - high ＂ 2） The increasing rates of minimum temperature in spring and in summer were the 0. 19~C/10a and 0. 044~C/10a respectively. Meanwhile, the decline rates of average temperature and minimum temperature were the 0. 117~C/10a and 0. 004~C/10a in autumn. The decline rates of average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were the 0. 681~C/10a,0. 478~C/10a and 0. 606~C/10a in win- ter since 1987. Besides, it was going through a dynamic change trend, which was ＂spring warm - summer warm - autumn cold - winter cold＂. 3 ） The climate of extreme dry and precipitation negative anomaly were predominantly before 1990s, and the climate of relative wet and precipitation positive anomaly were predominant since 1990s. The aridity index was greater than 16 and the dynamic change trend was ＂drying - wetting＂ aridity index in Alar area.