基于SWAT模型的洮儿河流域气候变化的水文响应

Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Taoer River Basin Based on SWAT Model

鉴于未来气候变化趋势对洮儿河流域水资源的影响,将直接关系到下游地区湿地保护、区域社会经济发展、白城市各河流与嫩江的河库连通工程等,以SWAT模型为研究手段,选取1988-1996年的流域实测数据,对SWAT模型进行率定和验证,基于率定好的模型分析气候变化情景下洮儿河的径流变化趋势。结果表明,SWAT模型具有较高的模拟精度,可用于洮儿河流域的径流模拟;在未来气候变化情景下,洮儿河流域的径流量（2020、2030、2040年代）比基准期（1990-1996年）稍有增加,其阶段径流量呈现先增后减的趋势。

The impacts of future climate change on water resources in Taoer River Basin,will directly affect wetland protection of the downstream basin,regional social and economic development and the rivers and reservoirs connectivity project.Taking the SWAT model as research means,the runoff from 1988 to 1996was used to calibrate and validate.Based on calibrated model,we can analyze the runoff change trend under the condition of future climate change in Taoer River.The results show that the simulation precision of SWAT model is pretty good,and it can be used to simulate the runoff of Taoer River basin;in the future,the runoff of Taoer River Basin（2020s,2030 s,2040s）increases slightly than the baseline period（1990-1996years）,and the stage of runoff increases first and then decreases.