最大熵方法在香溪河流域径流分析中的应用

Application of Maximum Entropy Method in Analysis of Xiangxihe Watershed Streamflow

香溪河流域是三峡库区的代表性流域,研究其径流量变化规律有重要意义,但目前尚缺乏对月尺度下各类径流统计量的分析。对此,以香溪河流域兴山水文站近40年（1969-2008年）径流量为基础,利用最大熵方法分析了香溪河流域的月径流变化特征。结果表明,最大熵方法可有效模拟香溪河流域的月径流量概率分布,体现其统计特征,优于P-Ⅲ型分布;香溪河流域具有显著的丰枯季节变化,且平均月径流量最高点发生了变异;香溪河流域的月径流量存在缓慢下降的趋势,且1、5、9、10、12月份发生了变异。研究结果为水利工程规划、设计提供了依据。

It is significant meaning to study the streamflow of Xiangxihe Watershed,which is a typical basin in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.However,the statistical analysis of monthly streamflow in Xiangxihe Watershed is lack of research at present.In this study,a method of maximum entropy method is applied to analysis of the variation of monthly streamflow based on the data of the Xingshan hydrometric station between the years from 1969 to 2008.The results indicate that the maximum entropy method can effectively simulate the probability distribution and reflect the statistical characteristics of monthly streamflow in Xiangxihe Watershed and it is better than the P-Ⅲ distribution.There is obvious seasonal variation and the highest point of average monthly streamflow has changed greatly.The amount of monthly streamflow had a slow downtrend and the streamflow in January,May,September,October and December had changed greatly.The results could provide a basis for water conservancy project planning and design.