包头市经济发展水平预测分析

The predictive analytics of economic development level in Baotou City

城市经济的发展水平不仅体现在经济增长速度的提升,还体现在经济规模、结构、质量和效益的统筹兼顾。如何因地制宜地进行经济评价,并对其发展趋势进行科学合理地预测,是经济建设亟待解决的一项重大课题。文中在建立经济发展指标体系的基础上,采用GM(1,1)模型,对2014-2020年包头市城市建设中的各项经济指标以及经济发展总体水平进行预测。结果表明,在没有其他因素变化的情况下,除"第三产业占GDP比重"外,其它各项指标均朝着良好的方向发展。但收入性指标增长落后于GDP增幅、经济结构失衡、经济发展方式粗放依然是制约未来包头市经济发展的主要因素。同时,GM(1,1)模型能够很好地拟合经济发展状况,适合预测经济发展的各项指标,预测结果良好。

The economic development level of a city is reflected not only in economic growth rate, but also in making overall arrangement on economies of the scale, structure, quality and efficiency. How to conduct the eco- nomic evaluation by adjusting measures to local conditions and make a scientific and reasonable forecast to its de- velopment tendency was the major topics urgently needed to be solved in economic construction. Based on eco- nomic development index system, the economic indicators and the whole economic development level of city con- struction in Baotou City during the year 2014 -2020 was forecasted by using GM（ 1 ,I ） model. It turned out that without other factors variation, all indexes would develop toward the favorable direction. But the principal factor of restricting economic development level in Baotou City would still be the disparity between income index growth and GDP amplification, the slow non- public economic development and the extensive mode of economic devel- opment. Meanwhile, in view of system and regularity in the process of economic development, GM （ 1,1 ） model in grey system could well fit each index of economic construction, and be suitable for forecasting indicators as well as the overall level of economic development, which results were perfect.