新疆和田策勒1960-2013年沙尘天气变化趋势

The changing trend for sand-blowing and floating dust weathers between 1960 and 2013 in Cele of Hotan area,Xinjiang

沙尘天气的年际变化受多种气象要素及绿洲化进程的影响,对和田策勒1960-2013年的沙尘天气气象数据进行回归分析和双变量相关性分析,探讨策勒沙尘天气的变化趋势及影响因素。结果表明:1960-2006年策勒扬沙、浮尘、沙尘暴、大风天气5月份出现日数最多,其次是4、6、7、3月;年平均气温随年份总体呈增长趋势,年降雨量随年份变化不明显。1960-2013年,年浮尘日数与年份符合多项式函数关系,先增大再减小,年沙尘暴、扬沙、大风天气日数与年份之间变化相关性不显著。1960-1980年扬沙日数与年份符合多项式函数关系且相关性较好。年沙尘暴日数与年份呈线性增长关系,相关性中等。1980-2013年,年浮尘、扬沙、沙尘暴日数与年份之间都呈线性递减规律,R2分别为0.80、0.70、0.582。1960-2006年,年扬沙、年沙尘暴日数与年浮尘日数变化趋势一致。年平均风速与年沙尘暴日数之间呈现显著的正向变化,年平均气温与年平均相对大气湿度、年平均气温与年大风日数之间呈现显著的负相关性。年降雨量与年平均相对湿度之间呈现极显著正向变化。农田开垦等人为活动也会影响到年扬沙、浮尘日数的变化。

Annual changes for sand -blowing and dust days are influenced by vary meteorological elements and ossification process. The meteorological data of sand - blowing and dust weather were analyzed by regression and double varied parameters correlation methods. We discussed the changing trend and influenced factors of sand - blowing and dust weather in Cele County. The outcome indicated that the most days of sand -blowing weather, floating dust weather, dust storm weather and gale weather occurred in May from 1960 to 2006 in Cele, the fol- lowing months were April, June, July and March. Annual average air temperature was in increasing trend with following year, it was not significant in change for annual rainfall with following year. It obeyed polynomial func- tional relationship between annual days of floating dust and following years from 1960 to 2013, which firstly in- creased then decreased. It obeyed polynomial functional relationship between annual days of sand -blowing and following years, and the relationship was better. It was increased in linear relationship between annual dust storm days and following years, and the correlation was moderate. They all obeyed decreased hnear relationships among annual days of floating dust, sand -blowing, dust storm weather and following years, the determination indexes were 0.80, 0.70 and 0. 582, respectively. They were in same changed trend among annual days of sand - blo- wing, dust storm and floating dust. From 1960 to 2006, there were significant positive correlation between annu- al average wind speed and annual days of dust storm, and there were significant negative correlations between an- nual average air temperature and annual average relative humidity and between annual average temperature and annual days of gales. They showed significant positive correlations between annual rainfall and annual average relative humidity. Human activities including farmland reclamation also influenced the change of annual days for sand -blowing and floating dust weather.