中国对外直接投资的产业效应研究

Can Outward Foreign Direct Investment Improve Industrial Structure?

随着改革开放的深入和经济实力的增强,我国对外直接投资数量不断增长。根据国际直接投资理论,对外直接投资能够带动一国产业结构的转型升级。本文通过构造产业结构高度化、产业技术高度化和产业价值高度化三个描述产业结构变化指标,对我国30个省区市数据进行空间动态面板检验。研究表明:产业结构变化具有时间滞后性,其中产业技术高度化指标具有显著正空间依赖性。现阶段对外直接投资主要通过转移边际产业来促进经济"服务化",并且对外直接投资所获得的逆向技术溢出也能显著促进产业技术水平,但对外直接投资对产业价值高度化没有显著影响,说明无法提升整体产业的附加价值。据此,本文提出了相关的政策建议。

Following the development of China＇s OFDI, we make three indicators of industrial structure changes which are ＂Industrial Structure Sophistication＂, ＂Industrial Technology Sophistication＂ and ＂Industrial Value Sophistication＂ in order to test 30 provinces and autonomous regions data in China by spatial dynamic model. The results exhibit that the industrial structure changes have time lag and the industrial technology sophistication index has a significant positive spatial dependence. OFDI mainly promotes service rate of economic through transferring marginal industries as well as significantly promotes the level of industrial technology through reverse technology spillover in this stage. But OFDI doesn＇t significantly affect the industry value sophistication, indicating OFDI cannot enhance the added value of the industry as a whole.