中国省际可实现节能减排潜力测度——基于三阶段DEA模型的研究

The Potential Measures of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in China——Research Based on the Three Stage DEA Model

节能减排问题已经成为新阶段中国经济发展过程中的一个重要议题。越来越多的学者开始关注这一问题,并采用各种方法对中国节能减排潜力与效率进行测度。综合看来,利用DEA模型测度出的节能减排潜力往往是没有剥离环境因素的理想值,这样得出的节能减排潜力往往是有偏差的或者是无法实现的。本文运用三阶段DEA模型,将产业结构、人均GDP、FDI结构以及进出口比重等宏观环境因素剥离,进而得到中国省际有效可实现的节能减排潜力。最后,利用Tobit模型对节能减排潜力的影响因素进行分析,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。

Energy saving and emission reduction has become an important issue in the process of China＇s economic development. More and more scholars begin to pay attention to this problem, and adopt various methods to measure the potential and efficiency of China＇s energy saving and emission reduction. Comprehensive view, use DEA model to measure the potential of energy saving and emission reduction is often the ideal value of no stripping environmental factors, so that the potential of energy saving and emission reduction is often have partial or is unable to realize. In this paper,using of three stage DEA model, the divestiture of its industrial structure, per capita GDP, the structure of FDI and import and export proportion etc. macro environmental factors, and then get the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in China. Finally, the tobit model is used to analyze the impact factors of energy saving and emission reduction potential, and on this basis, put forward the relevant policy recommendations.