基于FloodArea模型的云南山洪淹没模拟研究

Simulation Study of Flood in Yunnan Based on the Flood Area Model

致灾临界雨量法被普遍用于山洪预警,结合Flood Area模型动态模拟山洪灾害淹没是获取临界雨量的新方法。对2012年云南宣威"7.12"山洪灾害进行实地调查,获取山洪沟基本参数及隐患点淹没高度,利用周边气象站逐时降雨量进行淹没模拟。结果表明:当临界雨量分别为42 mm、85 mm、136 mm和180 mm时,达到各山洪灾害等级淹没高度,即得出各等级致灾临界雨量。对比实测值和模拟值后得出,此模型具有一定的参考价值,但需更精确的地理信息数据支撑。

Yunnan Province is one of the most flood-influenced regions. Disaster critical（ surface） precipitation method is frequently applied to the prediction of flood. With the investigation of 7. 12 flood that took place in Xuanwei,Yunnan Province,we try to simulate the inundation based on the terrain parameters,water levels,and rainfall in surrounding area. The result shows that,the thresholds of the hazard rating precipitation are 42 mm,85 mm,136 mm and 180 mm. With the comparison of simulated data and measured data,this model could be applied in the prediction of hazard flood. High resolution GIS data is needed for precise prediction of hazard flood.