海平面上升引发的极端高水位的频率风险评估模型及其应用——以宁波为例

Model for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Extreme High Water Level Caused by Rising Sea Level and Its Application——A Case Study in Ningbo

海平面上升是全球变化研究的热点,海平面上升引发的极端高水位事件将严重威胁沿海城市的经济发展和社会生活。因此在当前气候变化背景下,开展极端高水位事件的风险评估显得尤为重要和迫切。对此引入频率风险思想,从极端高水位事件发生的频率、强度和造成的后果等角度构建了频率风险的概念模型和评价指标体系,建立了基于耿贝尔极值法、灰色Verhulst模型和Arc GIS平台的极端高水位频率风险评估模型;以浙江省宁波市为例,进行了气候变化情景下不同极端高水位发生频率对我国沿海城市遭受经济损失的风险评估实验。结果表明,基于国内外众多学者对我国极端高水位预估情景,2050年极端高水位事件的发生频率预期将远大于当前,沿海城市岸堤的防范能力较之目前将有大幅度的降低;并给出了不同强度的极端高水位事件对宁波市构成潜在威胁和经济损失风险的定量评估。

Sea level rise,which is a focus topic of global change study,will cause extreme high water level events bringing a series threat to the coastal city of economic development and social life. Therefore,in the background of the current climate change,we carry out risk assessment of extreme high water level events is particularly important and urgent. We introduce frequency risk ideology to construct frequency risk model and evolution index system containing frequency. Intensity and consequences of the extreme high water events. We established this model based on Gumbel extremum method,grey Verhulst model and Arc GIS platform,taking Ningbo city as an example to study the risk of the economic losses which China＇s coastal city has suffered under different extreme high water level scenarios with the climate change. The results show that the occurrence frequency of extreme high water level events will be far greater than the current bank coastal city based on many domestic and foreign scholars＇ predicting; the prevention ability will be greatly reduced. we also give the quantitative assessment of different extreme high water level events＇ potential threats to Ningbo and its economic losses.