基于历史案例的自然灾害灾情评估方法研究

Study on Evaluation Method of Natural Disaster Based on Historical Cases

当某一自然事件被确定为灾害时,在获取有限的灾害数据情况下基于历史相似灾害案例进行快速的灾情评估,是有效进行灾害、灾情分析和抗灾救灾决策的保障。以历史案例灾害的灾害、灾情指标和当前灾害的灾害指标为数据基础,以最小距离法原理建立历史案例与当前灾害的相似度判断模型,设计基于历史案例相似度的自然灾害灾情评估模型,实现基于历史案例的自然灾害灾情评估方法与技术方案,并且以河南2001-2006年的农业干旱历史数据为历史案例,以其2007年农业干旱农作物受旱面积为评估指标,随即选取了一个相似度评估方法对灾情评估方案进行了案例验证,结果显示相对精度为98.45%,可信度较高。基于历史案例的灾情评估方法成本低、效率高、时效性强,且方法简单、约束条件较少、容易实现,在灾情评估方面具有一定的实用价值。

When a natural event was recognized as a disaster,damage assessment based on similarly historical cases rapidly in access to limited disaster data situation is effective support for analysis disaster and making disaster relief decision. In this paper,extracting indexes of historical and current disaster,establishing models of histories similarity judgment by the principle of minimum distance,and designing the assessment methods and technical processes based on disaster assessment model of historical case similarity. Then taking crops area affected drought of Henan Province as target,random selecting a similarity assessment model verified the feasibility of the technical scheme by using the historical drought disaster dataset of 2001-2006. The result showed that the relative accuracy is98. 45% and the credibility is higher. The plan of this paper is low cost,high efficiency,timeliness strong,simple,less constraints and easy to implement. It has certain practical value and promotion prospects in disaster assessment.