货币政策预期与通货膨胀管理--基于消息冲击的DSGE分析

Monetary Policy Expectation and Inflation Management:A DSGE Analysis Based on News Shocks

本文在新凯恩斯DSGE的框架下,从消息冲击的视角,区分并探讨了预期与未预期的货币政策冲击对我国通货膨胀的作用。同时,通过中美政策作用比较,以及参数和预期结构替换,探寻我国货币政策作用特征的根源及其机制。主要结论为:(1)我国货币政策预期冲击的效果要远强于未预期冲击;(2)与美国相比,我国货币政策的调控力度更大、持续性更小且存在轻微超调;(3)我国货币政策的特征源于经济主体的短视预期以及央行货币政策的不连贯性。本文的政策启示包括:(1)央行应通过沟通等形式引导公众预期以增强政策效果;(2)尽力避免相机抉择式的政策制定方式,保持货币政策的持续性;(3)货币政策应言行一致。概言之,我国货币政策应该更加透明、连贯和可信。

From the perspective of news shocks, this paper distinguishes and studies the effects of both the anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks on China＇s inflation in a New Keyesian DSGE model. Furthermore, we analyze the characteristics and mechanism of China＇s monetary policy by Sino-US policy effect comparison, and the replacement of parameters and expectation structure. The conclusions are as follows ： （ 1 ） The impacts of the anticipated shocks are much stronger than the unanticipated ones in China. （2） Compared with the case of the United State, China＇s monetary policy has a larger and less persistent effect together with a minor over-shooting feature. （3） The above characteristics origin from the incohereney of the monetary policy conducted by the central bank and the short-sighted expectation from the economic agents. The policy implications are derived： （ 1 ） To make monetary policy more effective, the central bank should guide the public＇s expectations by means of central bank communications, etc. （2） The central bank should try to avoid discretion in order to maintain the consistency of monetary policy. （3） The implementation of monetary policy should keep its deeds with its words. In sum, China＇s monetary policy should be more transparent, coherent and credible.