被遗忘的总供给:财政政策扩张一定会导致通货膨胀吗?

The Forgotten Aggregate Supply:Is Fiscal Expansion Inflationary?

一般认为,财政政策扩张是引致通货膨胀的重要原因。本文通过将生产性政府支出引入动态随机一般均衡模型,并结合我国1998Q1—2013Q4的宏观季度数据对模型参数进行贝叶斯估计,分别从理论分析和经验研究两个维度对这一问题加以重新审视,得到如下主要结论:(1)生产型财政政策扩张除了通过总需求直接导致通货膨胀之外,还能够从总供给侧对通货膨胀及其预期产生抑制作用,且后者与政府支出的生产性程度密切相关。当生产性达到一定水平时,财政政策通过总供给所产生的影响将发挥主导作用,最终导致通货膨胀及其预期下降;(2)贝叶斯估计结果显示,在样本期内我国政府所实施的财政政策本身并不是导致通货膨胀的主要原因。上述结论在不同的偏好形式、投资调整成本函数和劳动力市场设定下均十分稳健。此外,本文对消息冲击下的财政政策进行分析表明,提前释放有关财政政策的信号能够通过引导公众预期对稳定经济波动发挥明显的积极作用。

Generally speaking, fiscal expansion will lead to inflation. This paper will reconsider this issue by introducing productive government expenditure into a new Keynesian model, and estimating it by Bayesian methods using the sample from 1998：1 to 2013：4. We find that （1） productive fiscal policy can influence inflation dynamics through both aggregate demand and aggregate supply channel. Although the former may trigger inflation, the latter will depress it. The relative strength depends on the productivity of the government expenditure; （2） Based on Chinese quarterly data, we find that inflation was not mainly caused by fiscal stimulus in sample period. In addition, these discoveries are robust to different form of utility function, investment adjustment cost function and alternative specifications on labor market. By examining the effects of fiscal news shock, we find that revealing relevant information about future policy in advance is helpful to stabilize the public＇s expectation.