防范通货紧缩及通缩预期对经济增长的影响

Avoiding the Impact of Deflation and Deflation Expectation on Economic Growth

未来一段时间,我国经济出现通胀的概率很低,主要风险是通缩和下行压力,宏观调控要明确基本取向,把稳增长与防通缩结合起来,把需求侧综合性调控与供给侧结构性改革结合起来。需求侧调控的政策重点是,合理确定经济增长和价格上涨目标,稳定和引导市场预期;实施适度宽松和定向调控的货币政策,定位好防通缩的政策目标和运用好多种政策工具;实施更加积极和结构性的财政政策,适当加大政策力度和发挥更好政策效果。以此为基础,通过深化供给侧改革促进结构调整和经济增长,重点推进国有企业、用地供给、金融、财税、价格等关键环节改革。

This paper holds the view that the Chinese economy will unlikely encounter inflation in the short term. The major risks are deflation and downward pressure. Macro regulation should have a clear orientation, combining stable growth with prevention of deflation, and integrating demand-side holistic management with supply-side structural reform. The focal point of the demand-side management is to set a reasonable bar for the growth rate of economy and the rise of price level, in order to stabilize and guide market expectations. We should adopt a moderately easing and directionally regulatory monetary policy, set appropriate policy objectives for the prevention of deflation and make use of varieties of policy measures. We should implement a structural fiscal policy in a more proactive manner, giving extra dynamic to the implementation of policies so that the effect could be better. Afterwards, through a deep reform of the supply-side, we can reinforce economic restructuring and boost economic growth. We can pay close attention to the reform of key areas such as state-owned enterprises, land supply, finance, taxation and price.