基于GWR模型中国碳排放空间差异研究

Study on Spatial Difference of Carbon Emissions in China Based on GWR Model

本文通过地理加权回归方法(GWR)研究全国30个省份分别在1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年城镇化、工业结构和能源强度对二氧化碳排放的影响,揭示各影响因素在不同省份的空间差异性。结果表明城镇化在各省市对二氧化碳排放的影响不断增大,其中东部省市的影响较大。工业结构对二氧化碳排放的影响最大,并且呈现逐年下降的趋势。能源强度对二氧化碳排放在总体上有正影响,对中西部地区的部分省份在2007年有负影响,说明存在能源回弹效应。因此,在总体上制定减排政策时,要分区域、分省域制定合理的碳减排目标,对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划,同时要兼顾到欠发达省市的经济发展状况,让经济发达的区域和省市适当承担较多的碳减排任务。具体来看,在城镇化建设过程中,要合理利用公共的城市资源,分别从建筑、交通、工业和能源等方面制定低碳城市建设计划,同时,鼓励大家使用公共交通或者低碳出行方式,从而减少能源需求以及环境污染,进而能更好地保证生活质量和环境状况;从工业结构方面来看,要不断调整产业结构,逐步转向以第三产业为主导的产业结构。在西部地区,要结合当地的地理特征,以提供生产原料为主导产业,发展特色农业和特色林业,不断提升自然因素对碳的吸收能力;从能源强度来看,一方面要在经济快速发展的同时不断提高技术水平,积极开发风能、太阳能、生物质能和其他可再生能源,不断降低煤炭在能源消费中的比重,另一方面从技术角度制定碳减排政策时应考虑回弹效应,尽量减少能源回弹效应的消极影响。

This paper employs Geographical Weighted Regression（ GWR） model to examine the impact of urbanization,industrial structure and energy intensity on CO2 emissions in different regions and reveals the spatial differences in different provinces in 1997,2002,2007 and 2012,respectively. Results showed that the impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions continues to increase and the impact on that of eastern region is the greatest. Industrial structure has the most significant effect on carbon emissions,but the influence is decreasing year by year. Energy intensity has a positive impact on the overall CO2 emissions,while having negative impacts on that of some central and western provinces,which means that there is the energy rebound effect. Therefore,the government should enact reasonable carbon reduction targets in different regions and different provinces. Besides,the cooperative emission reduction plan is supposed to carry out in adjacent provinces. At the same time,it is necessary to take the economic development condition of the underdeveloped provinces into consideration and the developed regions and provinces should shoulder more carbon emission reduction task. Specifically,the government should use public resources reasonably,make low-carbon urban construction plans in construction,transport,industry and energy,etc. and encourage people to use public transportation or have low-carbon travel in the process of urbanization. Thus,it can reduce energy demand and environmental pollution,and ensure better life quality and environmental conditions. In terms of industrial structure,it is necessary to adjust industrial structure,gradually promoting the tertiary industry to be the leading industry. In western region,the government should,considering the local geographical features,make the production of raw materials as leading industry and develop characteristic agriculture,characteristic forestry to improve carbon absorption capacity from the nature continuously. In terms of energy intensity,with rapid development of economy,it is supposed to further improve the technological level,actively develop wind,solar,biomass energy and other renewable energy and reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption. Furthermore,in order to minimize the negative impact of energy rebound effect,it should be taken into consideration when developing carbon reduction policy from technical aspect.