农村人口动态多维贫困:状态持续与转变

Dynamic Multidimensional Poverty in Rural China: Persistence and Transition

能力贫困、动态贫困、多维贫困更符合贫困的本质和走向,本文利用2010年和2012年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)农村平衡面板数据,运用Biprobit模型基于个人层面可行能力和主观福利感受分析农村人口多维贫困状态持续与转变。结果表明:农村人口年龄、从事农业活动时间、区域差异、受教育程度、绝对收入、社会地位及相对收入等均对农村人口持续多维贫困产生显著影响。受教育程度、从事农业活动时间、区域差异、年龄、相对收入、户籍和绝对收入均对农村人口陷入多维贫困产生显著影响。农村人口从事农业活动的时间越长,持续多维贫困的可能性越高,陷入多维贫困的可能性越低。东部、中部、西部发生持续性多维贫困的可能较高,而东部、西部陷入多维贫困的可能性较低。绝对收入、相对收入和社会地位越高,农村人口发生持续性多维贫困的可能性越低。女性、受教育程度较低的农村人口持续性多维贫困的可能性更高。相对收入较低的农村人口易于陷入多维贫困,然而相对收入对农村人口持续性多维贫困的作用不明显。社会地位对农村人口持续性多维贫困产生消极作用,却对陷入多维贫困的影响不显著。主要研究结论:打破"持续多维贫困"恶性循环应从"小处"着手,以"输血"为主,"走进去"识贫,"走出来"脱贫;防范农村人口陷入多维贫困应从"大局"着眼,把发展和消除不平等作为解决多维贫困的根本途径,引导"脱贫"和防范"返贫",提能力避返贫,新思路促扶贫。精准扶贫机制要建立在契合贫困本质的贫困标准上,找准"贫根",寻共性扶贫,诊特性脱贫。

Capacity poverty,dynamic poverty and multidimensional poverty is more in line with poverty’s nature and trends. Using the rural balanced panel data of Chinese Family Panel Survey（ CFPS） in 2010 and 2012,the paper analyzed the persistence and transition of rural poverty based on the individual functional competence and subjective feelings of well-being. The results showed that： The age of rural population,time engaged in agricultural activity,regional differences,years of education,absolute income,social status and relative income produced significant influence on chronic multidimensional poverty. Years of education,time engaged in agricultural activity,regional differences,age,relative income,household registration and absolute income caused significant impact of the rural population falling into multidimensional poverty. And the more time engaged in agricultural activities,the higher probability of multidimensional chronic poverty would occur,however,more time engaged in agricultural activities can significantly reduce the chance of falling into multidimensional poverty. As for the eastern, western and central areas, the possibility of occurring chronic multidimensional poverty may be higher than the comparison region. In terms of eastern and western regions,the possibility of falling into multidimensional poverty was significantly lower than the comparison area. Absolute income,relative income and social status can significantly improve the rural chronic multidimensional poverty,while the impact on the rural population falling into multidimensional poverty was not significant. Gender and years of education produced significant negative influence on stability of multidimensional poverty. Lower relative income may lead the rural population to fall into multidimensional poverty,but the effect of relative income on chronic multidimensional poverty was not obvious. Social status produced significantly negative impact on the chronic multidimensional poverty,but it ignored the role of the rural population falling into multidimensional poverty. The main conclusion of the study： break the vicious circle of ‘chronic multidimensional poverty’should be concerned about the ‘individual characteristics’; considering the transition of multidimensional poverty,to prevent the rural population falling into poverty should keep ‘overall situations’ in mind,taking the development and the elimination of inequality as the fundamental way to multidimensional poverty,to guide ‘poverty alleviation’and to prevent ‘return into poverty. ’Precise poverty alleviation mechanism should be established on the precise standard fitting the nature of poverty,identify the‘poor source’,seek the commonness to poverty reduction,diagnose diagnosing characteristics of moving out of poverty.