人力资本对农业现代化的影响及动态转换实证

Empirical Analysis about the Influence and Dynamic Transformation of Human Capital on Agricultural Modernization

迈入经济新常态,农业现代化发展仍然是"新四化"中的薄弱环节与战略焦点。新时期如何推动农业现代化发展存在诸多争议,现有政策架构设计和任务聚焦虽然将农业现代化提到新的高度,但过多强调物质资本对农业现代化的推动作用,在"四化"同步新时期以及"谁来种粮"困境倒逼下政策效果并不显著,而且随着"四化"同步深化,这种不兼容性可能还会凸显。现实困境与制度背离催促政策调整和路径创新。为此,本研究从人力资本视角探求其对农业现代化的影响效应及其动态转换性,旨在对这种困境成因给予解答。基于相关量化数据,本文建立普通面板模型和门槛面板模型实证研究发现:我国省级样本跨期内,人力资本对农业现代化的影响效应显著为正,且相比其他变量其边际影响系数最大;人力资本对农业现代化的影响在不同人力资本积累水平和不同工业化阶段存在显著的动态转换特征:具体来说,随着人力资本积累深化或者说当人力资本跨越相应"门槛值"后其对农业现代化的影响强度亦会发生变化,但总体来说呈现"边际收益递减"规律。从工业化阶段层面来看,随着工业化阶段转变,人力资本作用与地位会愈发凸显,尤其是其跨越第三个门槛值后迈入第四阶段后,其对农业现代化的影响效应将达到最大。研究不但揭示了农业现代化发展的"人力资本之谜",也为"四化"同步新时期推动农业现代化发展和政策调整指引了方向。此外,从控制变量层面来,农业分工、农业结构对农业现代化影响显著为负,农业研发和工业化对农业现代化影响显著为正。最后,文章基于实证结论给出了相关政策建议。

With China’s stepping into the economy stage of new normal,agricultural modernization is still the weak link and strategic focus of the new ＂four modernization construction＂. And controversies remain in the issue that how to promote the development of agricultural modernization facing new situation. Though the current policy design and task focus improve agricultural modernization to a new focus level,its development effect is still not significant due to over-emphasis on material capital ’s promoting function,the development philosophy of four modernizations’ synchronization and the dilemma of ＂who to farm＂. And the incompatibility above might be magnified with the deepening of four modernizations’ synchronization. The practical difficulties and system deviation call for policy adjustment and path innovation. Therefore,this paper analyzes the influence and dynamic transformation of human capital on agricultural modernization from a perspective of human capital. A general panel mode and a threshold panel mode are built based on relative panel data. And it is found out that within the sample period,human capital has a significantly positive effect on the agricultural modernization,and its marginal effect coefficient is maximum comparing to other variables. And the positive influence shows an obvious feature of dynamic transformation at different levels of human capital accumulation as well as in different stages of industrialization. Specifically speaking,with the deepening of human capital accumulation,or after the human capital crosses the corresponding threshold value,the influence strength of human capital on agricultural modernization will change,which in general,follows the law of ＂marginal returns＂. When the industrialization stage transforms,the role of human capital will become more and more prominent and its influential effect will rise to the peak especially after human capital crosses the third threshold value to the fourth interval. This paper not only recovers the puzzle of human capital in agricultural modernization,but also guides the agricultural modernization development and policy adjustment in the new normal. As for the control variables,the influences of agricultural labor division and agricultural structure on agricultural modernization are significantly negative,while those of agricultural R＆D and industrialization are significantly positive. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the empirical conclusions.