土地征用的农户收入效应——基于倾向得分匹配(PSM)的反事实估计

The Farmers Incomes' Effect of Land Acquisition:Based on Propensity Score Matching(PSM) Counterfactual Estimate

我国正处在经济社会发展转型期和城镇化高速推进期,土地征用和失地农户将是长期存在的社会现象,但土地征用是否会具有收入效应仍然莫衷一是,缺乏准确估计。本文基于2011年成都市"农村住户家庭问卷调查数据",利用倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法,估计了土地征用对失地农户收入的影响,为检视政府土地征用补偿制度合理性,健全政府土地征用政策、缓解土地征用冲突、完善征地后相关服务提供新观察。研究发现:1土地是否被征用确实存在着农户总收入效应和非农收入效应,被征地农户比未被征地农户总收入和非农收入显著高出19.6%和9.1%,使用OLS回归方法低估了土地征用对农户收入的促进作用,大致低估了11%,这为政府征地的合理性提供了农户收入佐证。2征地比例并不存在总收入效应和非农收入效应,被征地农户并不是被征地越多收入就会越高,但却会显著降低失地农户的农业收入,大致降低了81%,因而还要认识到土地征用对农户收入的有限性作用,打破土地征用的农户收入神话。3结合当前土地征用实践表明,过分强调土地征用农户收入效应并不能根除征地冲突和矛盾,一方面,要通过多元化就业渠道、多源化收入来源以及多样性社会保障制度避免了被征地农户"失地失业",提高被征地农户增收能力和收入水平。另一方面,更要强调征地程序公平合法,完善土地征用制度底层设计,加强对健康状况差、低收入等贫弱群体的保障,提升被征地农户人力资本和优化就业分布状态,使被征地农户能够顺利完成职业转换。

It is in the transition of economic and social development period in China,land acquisition and landless farmers are longterm social phenomenon,but whether land acquisition have the income effects is still lacking of accurate estimate. This article,based on Chengdu’s ＂rural households survey data in 2011 ＂,estimates the influence of land requisition on land-lost farmers income,by using the method of propensity score matching（ PSM）,to examine the rationality of land requisition,improve the land acquisition policy,relieve the conflicts of land requisition and improve government services. The study found： 1 land acquisition does have farmer income effect and non-farm income effect,total income and nonfarm income of landless farmers are 19. 6% and 9. 1% significantly higher than those whose land has not been expropriated. By using the OLS model,it underestimates the promotion effect of land requisition for the income of farmers,roughly 11%,and this provides the evidence for the rationality of government land acquisition. 2However,there are no income effect and non-agricultural income effect in proportion of land acquisition. Landless farmers don’t have more income with losing more land,but losing more land will significantly reduce landless farmers’ agricultural income,roughly 81%.We should recognize the limited role of land acquisition on the income of farmers,break the thinking that land acquisition will significantly improve farmers’ income. 3With combination of land acquisition practice,it shows that the emphasis on farmers’ income effect of land acquisition can not eradicate conflicts and contradictions. On the one side,we should avoid the landless farmers to＂lose their land,and then lose their jobs ＂,improve the income level of the landless farmers,and increase farmers ’ income by using diversified employment channels,various income sources and different social security systems. On the other hand,we should ensure fair and lawful land acquisition procedures,improve the bottom design of land requisition system,strengthen social security of the vulnerable groups of poor health and low income,enhance human capital of landless farmers and optimize the employment distribution,in order to successfully complete career change of landless farmers.