中国产业生态化转型的IOOE模型分析——基于工业部门2003-2012年数据的实证

Analysis on the Transformation of China's Industrial Ecology Using the IOOE Model:Empirical Analysis Based on the Industrial Sector's Data in 2003-2012

作为可持续发展的产业支撑,产业生态化不能仅仅局限于对经济增长的追求,而应将生态环境作为产业发展的外在约束条件。目前以产业生态化作为对象进行研究的成果较多,但将产业生态化作为一个动态发展进程的研究甚少,忽略了产业生态化到底是怎样的一个过程,分为哪几个阶段,每个阶段具有哪些特点,该怎样去衡量这个过程等问题。本文从这个角度出发,通过对传统经济增长模型约束条件的扩展,引入生态包袱的概念,并将其定义为生产活动对生态环境的占用,从投入、占用、产出与排放四个角度构建全面衡量产业生态化过程及阶段的IOOE模型,并以中国工业部门为例,分析全国及东、中、西部各区域工业生态化转型过程,得出以下结论:1我国工业投入逐年增加,污染物排放逐年减少,是产出增加的主要原因,占用量逐年增加使得其对产出仍然表现为阻碍作用;2我国工业生态化已经跨越了传统工业文明时代的产业发展,正处于向生态文明型转变的过渡阶段;3东、中、西部各区域间生态化阶段的不同符合各区域产业发展现实,如何在保持区域各自优势的基础上,实现整体产业生态化是未来产业发展重点。

As the supported industry of the sustainable development,industrial ecology should not be limited to the pursuit of economic growth,but take the ecological environment as the external constraints. Currently,there are much more researches about industrial ecology,but nearly none of them had noticed and researched the fact that industrial ecology is a dynamic developing process. They ignored the problems of ＂what kind process of industrial ecology is ＂,and ＂which stages it has been divided＂,＂what are the characteristics of each stage＂,and ＂how to measure this process＂. From this perspective,this paper firstly expands the constraint conditions of the traditional economic growth model,leads up the concept of ecological rucksack,defines it as the occupancies on ecological environment of production activities,builds the IOOE model which can comprehensively measure the process and stage of industrial ecology from the angle of input,output,occupancy and emission,and takes the industry sector as an example to analysis the transformation process of industrial ecology in overall and regional angles. We finally draw the following conclusions： 1 increasing inputs and reducing emissions are the main reasons for the increasing outputs of China’s industry,while the increasing occupancies hold the hindering effect; 2China’s industrial ecology has crossed the industrial development of the traditional industrial civilization era,and now it has being in the transitional phase towards to the ecological civilization; 3the regional ecological stages between each area are corresponding to the realities of their industry developments,and how to keep their respective advantages,achieving the overall industrial ecology is the key point of the development of the industry in the future.