重大工程项目社会稳定风险的非干预在线评估模式研究

The Non-intervention and Online Mode for Social Stability Risk Evaluation in Major Projects

论文针对重大工程项目社会稳定风险评估存在的失真与失灵问题,在理论回顾的基础上,建构了非干预在线评估模型;并以2013年广东江门鹤山反核事件为例,基于新浪微博大数据平台收集互联网数据,进行模型检验。研究结果表明,通过监测和评估项目选址地网民的风险感知与负面情绪,能够有效解释和预测重大项目所面临的社会稳定风险。据此,论文进一步提出一种线下线上社会稳定风险综合评估模式。

According to the lessons from the failure of social stability risk assessment in major projects,we developed a non- intervention online assessment model through a review of relevant literature. The model is tested by using Sina Weibo data about antinuclear protests in Heshan Jiangmen Guangdong in 2013. The results show that the social risk of a major project can be detected effectively by detecting the perceived risk and negative affects of network users where major project are located. Thus we put forward a comprehensive mode for social stability risk assessment for major projects including both online and offline evaluations.