水电工程项目群交叉作业风险演化机理研究

Research on evolution mechanisms of risks in hydropower project group cross operation

为提高水电工程项目群风险管理效率及模拟风险演化的自组织形成路径,建立基于系统动力学的风险演化研究方法。在建立水电工程项目群交叉作业风险因素层次体系基础上,运用因果反馈结构定性分析其演化机理;通过确定交叉作业风险动力学流图及变量间的函数关系,构建风险演化的系统动力学模型。以定量分析某流域在建水电工程地下项目群的交叉作业风险为例,验证模型有效性。结果表明：交叉作业风险量在1~4个月间大幅增长;5~9个月间,在风险管控逐步生效及其与风险积累间的自组织形成过程中,交叉作业风险量下降且波动明显;10~24个月间,交叉作业风险量出现小幅度恒定增长,且波动水平较低。风险自组织形成路径与案例后续反馈结果基本相符。

To improve the efficiency of risk management in hydropower engineering project groups,simulate the self-organizing forming path of risk evolution,a risk evolution research method was developed based on system dynamics. On the basis of establishing a hierarchy of cross operation risk factors in hydropower project groups,causal feedback structure was used to qualitatively analyze its evolution mechanism. By determining the dynamic flow diagram and the function relations between variables of cross operation risks,a system dynamics model was built for evolution of the risks. To verify effectiveness of the model,it was used to analyze quantitatively cross operation risks in the underground project of a certain river basin hydropower project under construction in China. Results show that risk quantity experiences a sharp growth during the 1stto 4thmonths,then declines and fluctuates notably during the 5thto 9thmonths with effective risk management measures and the formation of self-organization of the effective risk control and risk accumulation,and then grows at a relatively low rate and little fluctuation during the 10 thto 24thmonths,and that the formation path of risk self-organization is roughly consistent with the following feedback of the case.