忧患主义者的人口论——从马尔萨斯到哈丁

Environmentalists' Population Theories——From Malthus to Hardin

文章简要回顾了马尔萨斯的人口论,尤其是级数理论和种群数量调节器理论,比较系统地总结了生态经济学家哈丁对马尔萨斯人口论的继承和新发展。哈丁的人口论是新时期发展了的马尔萨斯主义,他通过生态学三定律、公地悲剧、CCPP游戏、伊壁鸠鲁假说、没有免费的午餐、守恒定律等人类生态学、经济学和物理学知识反驳了"技术进步万能论"和"经济无限增长的宗教",重新系统地论证了实现人口零增长的必要性。哈丁呼吁:为了避免最终通过自然力量使人类种群走向全体毁灭的结局,人类应当对自身的生育行为加以节制,减少对生态环境的污染和破坏。研究结果表明,放弃唯经济发展论,维持经济、社会、人口与自然环境协调发展,更加符合社会主义价值观和时代潮流。

A brief review of the Malthusian population theories,especially the progression and population regulator theories has been made,and a systematic summary about advanced theory from Hardin,who is an ecological economist and inherited and further developed Malthusianism. Hardin’s population theories are developed the Malthusianism in new era. Based on the knowledge from theories in human ecology,economics and physics,like Three Laws in Ecology,the Tragedy of the Commons,the CC-PP game,the Epicurus Hypothesis,No Free Lunch Aphorism,the Conservation Laws,etc.,Hardin refuted the omnipotence of technology development and the ＂religion＂ of infinite economic growth,and he systematically demonstrated the necessity of zero population growth. Hardin appealed to actions like humans’ fertility control and reduction of environmental pollution before nature’s revenge. The study confirms that maintaining the coordinated development of economy,social,population and nature,instead of the single target of economic development,is more in line with the socialist values and the trend of the time.